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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | ATL | 18.8 | 20.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | CAR | 15.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | DAL | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | LAR | 20.9 | 19.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Rashee Rice | TEN | 17.8 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | NYJ | 9.1 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | PIT | 15.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | LAR | 8.3 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | DAL | 4.4 | 10.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts))
Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
['Chargers D/ST is THE pickup - DAL allows 30+ PPG, Chargers have 10+ pts in 2 straight', 'Isiah Pacheco: Mahomes OUT changes everything - Chiefs will run heavy vs TEN', 'Jayden Reed: Christian Watson OUT makes Reed clear WR1 in Saturday divisional game', 'Michael Carter: Conner + Benson on IR, Carter had 80% snaps Week 15, elite Week 17 @ CIN', 'AVOID: Keenan Allen (COLD -41%), Chiefs D/ST (COLD -73%), Emanuel Wilson (volatile)']
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 16 playoff semi-finals present several key decisions. Jacoby Brissett emerges as our top QB play in a favorable dome matchup against Atlanta, which has allowed top-6 fantasy QB scores in 2 of their last 3 games. The Cardinals QB has been remarkably consistent across 9 starts this season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads our WR corps with elite target share against the Rams on Thursday Night Football, while Bucky Irving gets a smash RB matchup against Carolina defense that allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to running backs. The Mahomes ACL tear significantly impacts Rashee Rice outlook—with Gardner Minshew starting in rainy Nashville, Rice slides to the bench in favor of Tetairoa McMillan in the FLEX.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 18.8 | 20.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 19.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.8 | 16.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.1 | 9.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 15.9 | 16.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 4.4 | 10.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 9.1 | 9.0 |
| Jayden Reed (bench) | WR | BE | 11.2 | 10.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.4 | 16.0 |
| Rams D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.2 | 6.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.1 | 10.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 8.7 | 6.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | IR | 14.2 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | QB | 16.6 | --- |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | RB | 23.8 | --- |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | RB | 15.2 | --- |
| Michael Wilson | WR | WR | 13.4 | --- |
| Rome Odunze | WR | WR | 12.6 | --- |
| Trey McBride | TE | TE | 16.8 | --- |
| DK Metcalf | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.5 | --- |
| Harrison Butker | K | K | 8.0 | --- |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.7 | --- |
| Colby Parkinson (bench) | TE | BE | 10.0 | --- |
| Jordan Addison (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Kareem Hunt (bench) | RB | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Kirk Cousins (bench) | QB | BE | 14.7 | --- |
| Mason Taylor (bench) | TE | BE | 7.2 | --- |
| Michael Carter (bench) | RB | BE | 11.0 | --- |
| Romeo Doubs (bench) | WR | BE | 9.6 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC 50% MODERATE. Cold weather (15°F) limits ceiling. Bench QB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 9-24 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC 72% BOOM in dome vs ATL (31st vs QB). Debate consensus 3/4. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within 17-35 range).
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 72%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC 64% MODERATE. Clear RB1 vs CAR. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 8-20 range).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 64% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 43% bust (this week). Same rain/wind game as Rice. Backup RB role limits upside. Poor game script if KC leads. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC 47% MODERATE in dome. XGB 58.8% bust but dome protects floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 5-20 range).
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust (this week). Strong BUST agreement. MIN defense has NOT allowed a TD pass in 5 games - elite unit. NYG likely playing from behind with limited run game. Cold, windy conditions. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -1-6 range).
Context: O/U: 42.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC 68% BUST in rain/wind. Lead back but weather disaster. Mode: BUST. Projection: 9.0 pts (within 5-13 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 68% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM. WR1 vs LAR. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 19.0 pts (within 8-29 range).
Context: O/U: 44.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 10.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC 50% BUST vs TB defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 8-14 range).
Context: O/U: 45.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT - On IR. Zero projection.
Context: O/U: 46.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC 43% BOOM but rain/wind caps ceiling. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 7-24 range).
Context: O/U: 37.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC 47% MODERATE in DET dome. 4/4 unanimous FLEX choice. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 5-24 range).
Context: O/U: 49.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 10.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC 43% BUST. Watson QUESTIONABLE may play. Cold weather. Mode: BUST. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 6-13 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC 41% MODERATE. Only TE option. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within 4-15 range).
Context: O/U: 40.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 16.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%
Notes: MC 50% MODERATE. Cold weather (15°F) limits ceiling. Bench QB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 9-24 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 14.8 | 17.0 | 13.9 | -0.9 |
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 18.2 | 25.8 | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | - | 7.1 | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | - | 17.7 | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | - | 7.8 | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | - | 9.0 | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | - | 28.3 | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | - | 13.4 | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | - | 15.0 | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | - | 26.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | - | 11.1 | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | - | 20.9 | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | - | 15.9 | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC 50% BUST vs TB defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 8-14 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23%
Notes: CONFIRMED OUT - On IR. Zero projection.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%
Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 43% bust (this week). Same rain/wind game as Rice. Backup RB role limits upside. Poor game script if KC leads. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 5.2 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59%
Notes: MC 40% BUST, XGB 59% bust. Bench play. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 6.0 pts (within 4-9 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DET | 4.2 | 4.0 | -1.0 | -5.2 |
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -0.9 |
| 13 | CAR | 7.5 | 10.0 | 1.0 | -6.5 |
| 12 | TB | 5.7 | - | 20.0 | +14.3 |
| 11 | SEA | 5.4 | - | 5.0 | -0.4 |
| 10 | SF | 6.4 | - | 5.0 | -1.4 |
| 9 | NO | 8.2 | - | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| 7 | JAX | 6.7 | - | 9.0 | +2.3 |
| 6 | BAL | 6.2 | - | 16.0 | +9.8 |
| 5 | SF | 7.0 | - | -2.0 | -9.0 |
| 4 | IND | 5.7 | - | 6.0 | +0.3 |
| 3 | PHI | 5.2 | - | 7.0 | +1.8 |
| 2 | TEN | 7.4 | - | 9.0 | +1.6 |
| 1 | HOU | 5.6 | - | 12.0 | +6.4 |
Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58%
Notes: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust (this week). Strong BUST agreement. MIN defense has NOT allowed a TD pass in 5 games - elite unit. NYG likely playing from behind with limited run game. Cold, windy conditions. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -1-6 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | WSH | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | -8.4 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NE | 6.3 | - | 19.2 | +12.9 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | - | 4.7 | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | - | 17.7 | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | - | 10.3 | +0.6 |
| 9 | SF | 5.5 | - | 7.1 | +1.6 |
| 8 | PHI | 1.2 | - | 3.8 | +2.6 |
| 7 | DEN | 0.8 | - | 0.2 | -0.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 1.0 | - | 1.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | NO | 6.0 | - | 3.4 | -2.6 |
| 4 | LAC | 7.4 | - | 2.8 | -4.6 |
| 3 | KC | 1.1 | - | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| 2 | DAL | 3.2 | - | 1.0 | -2.2 |
| 1 | WSH | 3.5 | - | 0.9 | -2.6 |
Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 68% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC 68% BUST in rain/wind. Lead back but weather disaster. Mode: BUST. Projection: 9.0 pts (within 5-13 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC 43% BUST. Watson QUESTIONABLE may play. Cold weather. Mode: BUST. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 6-13 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | DEN | 10.0 | - | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 14 | CHI | 7.7 | - | 9.3 | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | CLE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | WSH | 11.3 | - | 0.0 | -11.3 |
| 1 | DET | 11.2 | - | 13.5 | +2.3 |
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | JAX | 5.7 | 8.8 | 48% | 32% | 20% | HIGH | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | PIT | 13.5 | 12.7 | 30% | 50% | 20% | MEDIUM | |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | 16.6 | 17.0 | 18% | 59% | 23% | LOW | |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARI | 16.8 | 16.0 | 17% | 63% | 20% | LOW | |
| Harrison Butker | K | KC | 8.0 | 8.3 | 16% | 26% | 57% | LOW | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | CAR | 15.2 | 13.4 | 14% | 59% | 27% | LOW | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | CHI | 12.6 | 11.2 | 9% | 44% | 48% | LOW | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | 13.4 | 12.3 | 8% | 36% | 56% | LOW | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | DET | 23.8 | 21.8 | 7% | 23% | 70% | LOW |
Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 38%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)
DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)
Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 36% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)
Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)
Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)
Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 53% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)
Rome Odunze: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 8%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 48%)
Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 59% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 17%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)
Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 54% | MODERATE: 19% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.5 | 53% | 18% | 0.0% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 9.1 | 52% | 17% | 0.0% | |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 10.2 | 28% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.4 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.2 | 26% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 7.6 | 24% | 38% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 22% | 28% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 7.7 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 9.9 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Eddy Pineiro | K | 9.8 | 17% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 7.7 | 16% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 11.9 | 15% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.8 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 16.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 50% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.7 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:26% | 13% | 44% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 22% | 28% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 7.7 | BUST:41%, MODERATE:56%, BOOM:2% | 16% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | 8.1 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:11% | 9% | 60% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9.9 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:13% | 18% | 48% | |
| Quentin Johnston | 11.9 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:18% | 15% | 39% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.8 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.1 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 14% | 53% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.9 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 10.2 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% | 28% | 24% | |
| Evan Engram | 8.4 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 27% | 24% | |
| Hunter Henry | 10.2 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 62% | |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 9.4 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:15% | 8% | 58% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.2 | 26% | 26% | |
| Eddy Pineiro | 9.8 | 17% | 45% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.6 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.5 | 53% | 18% | |
| Chargers D/ST | 9.1 | 52% | 17% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 7.6 | 24% | 38% |
Win Probability
Floor: -40.0 pts | Median: +2.8 pts | Ceiling: +45.2 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Rome Odunze | QUESTIONABLE | 12.2 | Jordan Addison | 10.6 |
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 121.5 | 53.5% | +2.5 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 122.6 | 52.5% | +1.7 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 20.0 | 4.0-27.8 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 13% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 15.0 | 5.0-24.2 | ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.7-24.5 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 19.0 | 6.3-30.5 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 16.0 | 6.1-27.8 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 16.0 | 4.1-25.3 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.8-16.8 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.0 | 0.9-17.7 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 5.2-17.2 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 16.0 | 6.4-27.7 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 2.4-18.4 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 5.0 | 0.7-18.3 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 52% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.7-15.6 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 5.3-25.7 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 4.4-23.1 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.1-18.5 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.8-21.9 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | QB | MED | 16.9 | 6.3-28.0 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | HIGH | 21.7 | 10.1-40.0 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rico Dowdle | RB | HIGH | 13.4 | 4.9-28.6 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| DK Metcalf | WR | HIGH | 12.6 | 5.1-22.8 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Rome Odunze | WR | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.0-22.2 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Michael Wilson | WR | HIGH | 12.3 | 3.2-31.1 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Trey McBride | TE | MED | 16.0 | 8.1-26.4 | ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Jaguars D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.9 | 0.5-17.9 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Harrison Butker | K | HIGH | 8.3 | 2.7-15.0 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 28% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | QB | HIGH | 10.7 | 1.9-22.5 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Kareem Hunt | RB | HIGH | 10.8 | 2.8-20.5 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Michael Carter | RB | HIGH | 8.1 | 1.5-16.6 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Jordan Addison | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 5.5-21.9 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Romeo Doubs | WR | HIGH | 10.6 | 2.4-20.8 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Colby Parkinson | TE | HIGH | 7.9 | 1.8-15.1 | ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 36% | |
| Mason Taylor | TE | HIGH | 7.6 | 1.3-15.6 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 39% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.3 | 64% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.7 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.4 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 23.0 | 47% @ 12.0 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 14.9 | 41% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.6 | 30% @ 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 72% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 26% @ 5.9 | 17.2 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 32% @ 14.9 | 44% @ 8.3 | 24% @ 2.8 | 9.1 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 4.4 | 10.0 | BOOM | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 14.2 | 0.0 | OUT | 42.1% | 35.4% | 22.6% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.4 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 26.7% | 52.3% | 20.9% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.8 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 23.7% | 45.1% | 31.3% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 23.3% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.1 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 17.9% | 25.6% | 56.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.1 | 10.0 | BUST | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.7 | 6.0 | MODERATE | 16.1% | 46.9% | 37.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 18.8 | 20.0 | BOOM | 13.7% | 50.2% | 36.1% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11.2 | 10.0 | BUST | 12.9% | 35.6% | 51.5% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 15.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 12.3% | 44.4% | 43.4% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 9.1 | 9.0 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 19.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 65.9% | 22.7% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.0 | MODERATE | 10.8% | 30.2% | 59.0% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 7.5 | 5.0 | BUST | 9.8% | 31.8% | 58.4% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 8.7% | 32.5% | 58.8% |
Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Meat Pistols |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
HIGH SCORING (boom environments): - PIT @ DET: 49.5 total, DET -6.5 (Jameson Williams in shootout) - LAC @ DAL: 49.5 total (Omarion Hampton dome game) - GB @ CHI: 46.5 total (Jordan Love cold weather) - ATL @ ARI: 46.5 total, dome (Jacoby Brissett favorable)
LOW SCORING (bust environments): - KC @ TEN: 37.5 total + RAIN/WIND (Rashee Rice, Tyjae Spears depressed) - NYJ @ NO: 40.5 total (Juwan Johnson moderate ceiling)
LOCKED-IN STARTERS (high confidence): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1) - elite target share vs LAR - Bucky Irving (RB1) - juicy CAR matchup (2nd most pts to RBs) - Jacoby Brissett (QB1) - matchup-proof, ATL favorable - Jameson Williams (FLEX) - DET shootout script
SOLID STARTERS: - Rashee Rice (WR2) - volume play but Minshew + weather concerns - Omarion Hampton (RB2) - high-total dome game - Jordan Love (QB) - cold weather but 46.5 total
ACCEPTABLE: - Tetairoa McMillan (WR3/FLEX) - solid matchup vs TB - Jason Myers (K) - consistent in favorable conditions
AVOID/SIT: - Devin Singletary - MIN elite defense - Marcus Mariota - tough PHI matchup - Bears D/ST - GB offense competent - Rams D/ST - SEA at home is tricky - Tyjae Spears - rain game + backup role
Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Courtland Sutton, Tyrone Tracy
Negative Buzz: George Pickens, Rashee Rice (weather+QB)
Mixed Buzz: Gardner Minshew
['Chargers D/ST is THE pickup - DAL allows 30+ PPG, Chargers have 10+ pts in 2 straight', 'Isiah Pacheco: Mahomes OUT changes everything - Chiefs will run heavy vs TEN', 'Jayden Reed: Christian Watson OUT makes Reed clear WR1 in Saturday divisional game', 'Michael Carter: Conner + Benson on IR, Carter had 80% snaps Week 15, elite Week 17 @ CIN', 'AVOID: Keenan Allen (COLD -41%), Chiefs D/ST (COLD -73%), Emanuel Wilson (volatile)']
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 0.0 | -23.8 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 20.0 | 0.0 | -20.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 19.0 | 0.0 | -19.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 0.0 | -16.8 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 0.0 | -16.6 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 0.0 | -15.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 0.0 | -13.4 |
| Opponent | WR | Rome Odunze | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.4 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.7 | - | 0.0 | -5.7 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 10.0 | 24.0 | +14.0 |
| Free Agent | TE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 0.0 | - | 12.0 | +12.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 17.0 | 26.4 | +9.4 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Steelers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 9.0 | +9.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 13.0 | 4.5 | -8.5 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Bears D/ST | 6.6 | 10.0 | 18.0 | +8.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 16.0 | 8.1 | -7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.8 | 10.0 | 2.4 | -7.6 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 13.0 | 20.6 | +7.6 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.6 | 25.0 | 18.3 | -6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 8.0 | 14.4 | +6.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Marcus Mariota | 18.1 | 21.0 | 14.7 | -6.3 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 5.0 | -1.0 | -6.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Chuba Hubbard | 0.0 | - | 4.8 | +4.8 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | -4.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 16.0 | 12.1 | -3.9 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | -3.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 7.0 | 5.6 | -1.4 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 14.0 | 13.9 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.