Week 16 Fantasy Football Analysis

Valued Customers

Generated: 2025-12-17 05:59

65%
Win Probability
+18.0
Projected Margin
CI: [-2.0 to +38.0]
1
Boom Potential
Chargers D/ST
4
Bust Risk
Jameson Williams (43%), Juwan Johnson (57%), Omarion Hampton (59%), Bucky Irving (48%)

Start/Sit Decisions

: Start over
: Start over
: Start over
: Start over

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

SlotPlayerOppESPNLLMModeConfidence
QB Jacoby Brissett ATL18.820.0BOOMMEDIUM
RB Bucky Irving CAR15.215.0MODERATEMEDIUM
RB Omarion Hampton DAL13.214.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba LAR20.919.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Rashee Rice TEN17.816.0MODERATEMEDIUM
TE Juwan Johnson NYJ9.19.0MODERATEMEDIUM
WR Jameson Williams PIT15.916.0MODERATEMEDIUM
K Jason Myers LAR8.39.0MODERATEMEDIUM
D/ST Chargers D/ST DAL4.410.0BOOMMEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD Chiefs D/ST (D/ST) 53% boom / 18% bust
ADD Chargers D/ST (D/ST) 52% boom / 17% bust
ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 47% boom / 20% bust
Protected (Playoffs)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts))

Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

['Chargers D/ST is THE pickup - DAL allows 30+ PPG, Chargers have 10+ pts in 2 straight', 'Isiah Pacheco: Mahomes OUT changes everything - Chiefs will run heavy vs TEN', 'Jayden Reed: Christian Watson OUT makes Reed clear WR1 in Saturday divisional game', 'Michael Carter: Conner + Benson on IR, Carter had 80% snaps Week 15, elite Week 17 @ CIN', 'AVOID: Keenan Allen (COLD -41%), Chiefs D/ST (COLD -73%), Emanuel Wilson (volatile)']

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 16 playoff semi-finals present several key decisions. Jacoby Brissett emerges as our top QB play in a favorable dome matchup against Atlanta, which has allowed top-6 fantasy QB scores in 2 of their last 3 games. The Cardinals QB has been remarkably consistent across 9 starts this season. Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads our WR corps with elite target share against the Rams on Thursday Night Football, while Bucky Irving gets a smash RB matchup against Carolina defense that allows the 2nd-most fantasy points to running backs. The Mahomes ACL tear significantly impacts Rashee Rice outlook—with Gardner Minshew starting in rainy Nashville, Rice slides to the bench in favor of Tetairoa McMillan in the FLEX.

Key Insights

Matchup Status (Week 16)

0.0 - 0.0 vs 4th and pinches

Games Pending (17)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Jacoby Brissett QB QB 18.8 20.0
Bucky Irving RB RB 15.2 15.0
Omarion Hampton RB RB 13.2 14.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR WR 20.9 19.0
Rashee Rice WR WR 17.8 16.0
Juwan Johnson TE TE 9.1 9.0
Jameson Williams WR RB/WR/TE 15.9 16.0
Jason Myers K K 8.3 9.0
Chargers D/ST D/ST D/ST 4.4 10.0
Devin Singletary (bench) RB BE 7.5 5.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench) RB BE 9.1 9.0
Jayden Reed (bench) WR BE 11.2 10.0
Jordan Love (bench) QB BE 17.4 16.0
Rams D/ST (bench) D/ST BE 5.2 6.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench) WR BE 13.1 10.0
Tyjae Spears (bench) RB BE 8.7 6.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) WR IR 14.2 ---
0.0 Actual
128.0 LLM Total
123.5 ESPN Total

Opponent: 4th and pinches

Opponent Games Pending (16)

PlayerPosSlotESPNLLM
Baker Mayfield QB QB 16.6 ---
Jahmyr Gibbs RB RB 23.8 ---
Rico Dowdle RB RB 15.2 ---
Michael Wilson WR WR 13.4 ---
Rome Odunze WR WR 12.6 ---
Trey McBride TE TE 16.8 ---
DK Metcalf WR RB/WR/TE 13.5 ---
Harrison Butker K K 8.0 ---
Jaguars D/ST D/ST D/ST 5.7 ---
Colby Parkinson (bench) TE BE 10.0 ---
Jordan Addison (bench) WR BE 10.5 ---
Kareem Hunt (bench) RB BE 10.5 ---
Kirk Cousins (bench) QB BE 14.7 ---
Mason Taylor (bench) TE BE 7.2 ---
Michael Carter (bench) RB BE 11.0 ---
Romeo Doubs (bench) WR BE 9.6 ---
0.0 Opp Actual
110.0 Opp LLM Total
125.5 Opp ESPN Total
Projected Margin: +18.0 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC 50% MODERATE. Cold weather (15°F) limits ceiling. Bench QB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 18.8 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC 72% BOOM in dome vs ATL (31st vs QB). Debate consensus 3/4. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within 17-35 range).

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 72%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU13.916.020.6+6.7
14LAR15.319.019.0+3.7
13TB17.220.519.6+2.4
12JAX16.7-18.7+1.9
11SF17.9-21.9+3.9
10SEA15.3-19.4+4.2
9DAL19.4-24.8+5.4
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB16.6-19.8+3.2
6IND13.4-20.7+7.3
5TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
4SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
3SF0.0-0.0+0.0
2CAR0.0-0.2+0.2
1NO0.1-0.0-0.1
  • 6-game streak of beating projections
  • Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
  • Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Bucky Irving (TB vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC 64% MODERATE. Clear RB1 vs CAR. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within 8-20 range).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 64% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15ATL15.214.08.1-7.1
14NO16.416.016.1-0.3
13ARI11.812.016.1+4.3
12LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
11BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
10NE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
8NO0.0-0.0+0.0
7DET0.0-0.0+0.0
6SF0.0-0.0+0.0
5SEA0.0-0.0+0.0
4PHI17.5-25.5+8.0
3NYJ17.9-13.9-4.0
2HOU15.9-18.1+2.2
1ATL17.3-14.5-2.8
  • Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
  • Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 6.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 43% bust (this week). Same rain/wind game as Rice. Backup RB role limits upside. Poor game script if KC leads. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs DAL)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC 47% MODERATE in dome. XGB 58.8% bust but dome protects floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14.0 pts (within 5-20 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 59% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15KC11.710.07.5-4.2
14PHI12.18.014.7+2.6
13LV0.00.00.0+0.0
12BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
11JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
10PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
9TEN0.0-0.0+0.0
8MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
7IND0.0-0.0+0.0
6MIA0.0-0.0+0.0
5WSH18.6-13.0-5.6
4NYG16.7-27.5+10.8
3DEN12.2-24.9+12.7
2LV15.7-3.5-12.2
1KC14.7-8.1-6.6
  • Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
  • Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Devin Singletary (NYG vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust (this week). Strong BUST agreement. MIN defense has NOT allowed a TD pass in 5 games - elite unit. NYG likely playing from behind with limited run game. Cold, windy conditions. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -1-6 range).

Context: O/U: 42.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC 68% BUST in rain/wind. Lead back but weather disaster. Mode: BUST. Projection: 9.0 pts (within 5-13 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 68% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 19.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC 41% MODERATE, 29% BOOM. WR1 vs LAR. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 19.0 pts (within 8-29 range).

Context: O/U: 44.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15IND20.622.018.3-2.3
14ATL20.922.028.1+7.2
13MIN21.924.04.3-17.6
12TEN21.3-37.1+15.8
11LAR23.0-20.6-2.4
10ARI22.0-20.3-1.7
9WSH24.5-22.0-2.5
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7HOU20.0-26.3+6.3
6JAX17.9-30.2+12.3
5TB15.9-27.2+11.3
4ARI16.4-13.0-3.4
3NO15.5-20.6+5.1
2PIT14.4-18.3+3.9
1SF14.7-19.4+4.7
  • Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
  • Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
  • Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs TB)

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 10.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC 50% BUST vs TB defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 8-14 range).

Context: O/U: 45.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: CONFIRMED OUT - On IR. Zero projection.

Context: O/U: 46.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 17.8 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC 43% BOOM but rain/wind caps ceiling. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 7-24 range).

Context: O/U: 37.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC17.211.012.1-5.1
14HOU17.117.07.4-9.7
13DAL18.118.429.4+11.3
12IND17.6-24.1+6.5
11DEN16.4-9.8-6.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF18.4-18.6+0.2
8WSH17.2-25.5+8.2
7LV13.7-23.2+9.5
6DET0.0-0.0+0.0
5JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
4BAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
2PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
1LAC0.0-0.0+0.0
  • Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
  • Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
  • Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs PIT)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC 47% MODERATE in DET dome. 4/4 unanimous FLEX choice. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 5-24 range).

Context: O/U: 49.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAR13.918.026.4+12.5
14DAL13.817.317.3+3.5
13GB11.815.126.9+15.1
12NYG12.9-0.0-12.9
11PHI12.6-19.7+7.1
10WSH12.1-23.9+11.8
9MIN11.0-16.6+5.6
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7TB13.2-0.0-13.2
6KC10.7-18.6+7.9
5CIN11.8-2.0-9.8
4CLE10.7-5.7-5.0
3BAL12.9-6.3-6.6
2CHI13.0-18.8+5.8
1GB12.9-6.6-6.3
  • 3-game streak of beating projections
  • Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
  • Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Jayden Reed (GB vs CHI)

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 10.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC 43% BUST. Watson QUESTIONABLE may play. Cold weather. Mode: BUST. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 6-13 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

Juwan Johnson (NO vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC 41% MODERATE. Only TE option. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within 4-15 range).

Context: O/U: 40.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15CAR9.710.07.0-2.7
14TB9.710.07.8-1.9
13MIA8.711.08.9+0.2
12ATL9.3-10.6+1.3
11BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
10CAR8.9-19.2+10.2
9LAR8.3-12.1+3.8
8TB9.6-10.3+0.7
7CHI7.5-12.9+5.4
6NE7.9-1.5-6.4
5NYG7.9-3.7-4.2
4BUF11.1-5.8-5.3
3SEA10.6-11.1+0.5
2SF9.1-15.9+6.8
1ARI7.3-15.6+8.3
  • Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
  • Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 17.4 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 21%

Notes: MC 50% MODERATE. Cold weather (15°F) limits ceiling. Bench QB. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.0 pts (within 9-24 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN14.817.013.9-0.9
14CHI17.618.019.3+1.6
13DET15.718.225.8+10.0
12MIN17.4-7.1-10.4
11NYG16.3-17.7+1.3
10PHI17.0-7.8-9.1
9CAR18.1-9.0-9.1
8PIT17.1-28.3+11.2
7ARI17.4-13.4-4.0
6CIN19.3-15.0-4.4
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL18.6-26.3+7.7
3CLE16.0-11.1-4.9
2WSH17.6-20.9+3.3
1DET14.9-15.9+1.0
  • Trending up: 19.7 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.51)
  • Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs TB

Projections: ESPN 13.1 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC 50% BUST vs TB defense. Mode: BUST. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 8-14 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15NO13.211.04.5-8.7
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13LAR13.213.011.3-1.9
12SF16.3-11.5-4.8
11ATL13.5-33.0+19.5
10NO12.2-11.0-1.2
9GB12.9-8.6-4.3
8BUF13.4-16.9+3.5
7NYJ12.5-6.3-6.2
6DAL14.6-17.9+3.3
5MIA14.2-13.3-0.9
4NE14.2-10.2-4.0
3ATL13.2-7.8-5.4
2ARI13.5-16.0+2.5
1JAX13.9-11.8-2.1
  • Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
  • Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR) - ARI vs ATL

Projections: ESPN 14.2 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 23%

Notes: CONFIRMED OUT - On IR. Zero projection.

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15HOU0.00.00.0+0.0
14LAR0.00.00.0+0.0
13TB13.714.012.9-0.8
12JAX0.0-0.0+0.0
11SF0.0-0.0+0.0
10SEA13.3-14.3+1.0
9DAL13.3-22.6+9.3
8BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
7GB12.5-7.8-4.7
6IND11.9-5.2-6.7
5TEN12.8-13.8+1.0
4SEA11.3-18.6+7.3
3SF12.7-7.4-5.3
2CAR14.0-4.7-9.3
1NO13.9-18.1+4.2
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
  • Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs KC

Projections: ESPN 8.7 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 16% | Bust 37%

Notes: MC: 67% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 43% bust (this week). Same rain/wind game as Rice. Backup RB role limits upside. Poor game script if KC leads. Mode: MODERATE (low end). Projection: 6.0 pts (within 3-15 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15SF10.06.05.6-4.4
14CLE8.68.06.7-1.9
13JAX9.98.08.4-1.5
12SEA9.6-6.5-3.1
11HOU9.0-8.4-0.6
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9LAC9.5-9.2-0.3
8IND9.5-17.2+7.7
7NE7.8-7.0-0.8
6LV5.6-9.0+3.4
5ARI5.4-1.4-4.0
4HOU0.0-0.0+0.0
3IND0.0-0.0+0.0
2LAR0.0-0.0+0.0
1DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
  • 5-game streak of missing projections
  • Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
  • Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Rams D/ST (D/ST) - LAR vs SEA

Projections: ESPN 5.2 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 22%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 59%

Notes: MC 40% BUST, XGB 59% bust. Bench play. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 6.0 pts (within 4-9 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DET4.24.0-1.0-5.2
14ARI6.99.06.0-0.9
13CAR7.510.01.0-6.5
12TB5.7-20.0+14.3
11SEA5.4-5.0-0.4
10SF6.4-5.0-1.4
9NO8.2-10.0+1.8
7JAX6.7-9.0+2.3
6BAL6.2-16.0+9.8
5SF7.0--2.0-9.0
4IND5.7-6.0+0.3
3PHI5.2-7.0+1.8
2TEN7.4-9.0+1.6
1HOU5.6-12.0+6.4
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 7.4 pts vs 6.3 projected (+17%)
  • Trending down: 2.0 avg (last 3) vs 10.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.83)
  • Season high: 20.0 pts in Week 12

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 7.5 | LLM 5.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 58%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST (historical). XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust (this week). Strong BUST agreement. MIN defense has NOT allowed a TD pass in 5 games - elite unit. NYG likely playing from behind with limited run game. Cold, windy conditions. Mode: BUST. Projection: 5.0 pts (within -1-6 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15WSH10.86.02.4-8.4
14BYE0.00.00.0+0.0
13NE6.3-19.2+12.9
12DET9.9-4.7-5.2
11GB9.6-17.7+8.1
10CHI9.7-10.3+0.6
9SF5.5-7.1+1.6
8PHI1.2-3.8+2.6
7DEN0.8-0.2-0.6
6PHI1.0-1.0+0.0
5NO6.0-3.4-2.6
4LAC7.4-2.8-4.6
3KC1.1-1.1+0.0
2DAL3.2-1.0-2.2
1WSH3.5-0.9-2.6
  • Trending down: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 10.9 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.21)
  • Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs TEN

Projections: ESPN 9.1 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 68% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC 68% BUST in rain/wind. Lead back but weather disaster. Mode: BUST. Projection: 9.0 pts (within 5-13 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15LAC7.2-2.1-5.1
14HOU8.3-3.0-5.3
13DAL9.7-5.3-4.4
12IND0.0-0.0+0.0
11DEN0.0-0.0+0.0
10BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
9BUF0.0-0.0+0.0
8WSH11.4-5.8-5.6
7LV11.5-12.4+0.9
6DET8.9-6.1-2.8
5JAX7.7-8.6+0.9
4BAL9.2-12.8+3.6
3NYG11.1-5.8-5.3
2PHI10.9-3.9-7.0
1LAC12.8-4.8-8.0
  • 3-game streak of missing projections
  • Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
  • Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
  • Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jayden Reed (WR) - GB vs CHI

Projections: ESPN 11.2 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 46% | BOOM: 11%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 52%

Notes: MC 43% BUST. Watson QUESTIONABLE may play. Cold weather. Mode: BUST. Projection: 10.0 pts (within 6-13 range).

WeekOppESPNLLMActual+/-
15DEN10.0-10.5+0.5
14CHI7.7-9.3+1.6
13DET0.0-0.0+0.0
12MIN0.0-0.0+0.0
11NYG0.0-0.0+0.0
10PHI0.0-0.0+0.0
9CAR0.0-0.0+0.0
8PIT0.0-0.0+0.0
7ARI0.0-0.0+0.0
6CIN0.0-0.0+0.0
5BYE0.0-0.0+0.0
4DAL0.0-0.0+0.0
3CLE0.0-0.0+0.0
2WSH11.3-0.0-11.3
1DET11.2-13.5+2.3
  • Averaging 2.2 pts vs 2.7 projected (-17%)
  • Trending up: 6.6 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
  • Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.10)
  • Season high: 13.5 pts in Week 1

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Jaguars D/ST (D/ST): 48% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

PlayerPosTeamESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%Threat
Jaguars D/ST D/ST JAX 5.7 8.8 48% 32% 20% HIGH
DK Metcalf WR PIT 13.5 12.7 30% 50% 20% MEDIUM
Baker Mayfield QB TB 16.6 17.0 18% 59% 23% LOW
Trey McBride TE ARI 16.8 16.0 17% 63% 20% LOW
Harrison Butker K KC 8.0 8.3 16% 26% 57% LOW
Rico Dowdle RB CAR 15.2 13.4 14% 59% 27% LOW
Rome Odunze WR CHI 12.6 11.2 9% 44% 48% LOW
Michael Wilson WR ARI 13.4 12.3 8% 36% 56% LOW
Jahmyr Gibbs RB DET 23.8 21.8 7% 23% 70% LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Jaguars D/ST: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 38%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 20%)

DK Metcalf: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 31% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 30% | Bust 20%)

Baker Mayfield: MC (BUST: 36% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 23%)

Trey McBride: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 17% | Bust 20%)

Harrison Butker: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 57%)

Rico Dowdle: MC (BUST: 53% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 14% | Bust 27%)

Rome Odunze: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 8%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 48%)

Michael Wilson: MC (BUST: 59% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 17%) | XGB (Boom 8% | Bust 56%)

Jahmyr Gibbs: MC (BUST: 54% | MODERATE: 19% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 7% | Bust 70%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jayden Reed (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Rams D/ST (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts))
ADD Chiefs D/ST D/ST,
Boom%53%
Bust%18%
EV7.5
BUST: 27% (-4-8) MODERATE: 47% (0-12) BOOM: 26% (7-22)
ADD Chargers D/ST D/ST,
Boom%52%
Bust%17%
EV9.1
BUST: 24% (-3-9) MODERATE: 44% (2-14) BOOM: 32% (7-22)
ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,
Boom%47%
Bust%20%
EV12.2
BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)
ADD Zach Ertz TE,
Boom%28%
Bust%24%
EV10.2
BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)
ADD Evan Engram TE,
Boom%27%
Bust%24%
EV8.4
BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

PlayerPosTeamESPNBoom%Bust%Own%
Chiefs D/ST D/ST 7.5 53% 18% 0.0%
Chargers D/ST D/ST 9.1 52% 17% 0.0%
J.K. Dobbins RB 12.2 47% 20% 0.0%
Zach Ertz TE 10.2 28% 24% 0.0%
Evan Engram TE 8.4 27% 24% 0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn K 10.2 26% 26% 0.0%
Commanders D/ST D/ST 7.6 24% 38% 0.0%
Isiah Pacheco RB 8.0 22% 28% 0.0%
Patriots D/ST D/ST 8.8 22% 43% 0.0%
Bears D/ST D/ST 7.7 20% 30% 0.0%
Cooper Kupp WR 9.9 18% 48% 0.0%
Eddy Pineiro K 9.8 17% 45% 0.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. RB 7.7 16% 45% 0.0%
Quentin Johnston WR 11.9 15% 39% 0.0%
Garrett Wilson WR 14.8 15% 48% 0.0%

QB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Justin Fields 16.5 BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% 14% 50%
Sam Darnold 15.7 BUST:34%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:26% 13% 44%
Kyler Murray 16.8 BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% 11% 54%

RB Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
J.K. Dobbins 12.2 BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% 47% 20%
Isiah Pacheco 8.0 BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% 22% 28%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. 7.7 BUST:41%, MODERATE:56%, BOOM:2% 16% 45%
Trey Benson 8.8 BUST:33%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% 12% 57%
Emanuel Wilson 8.1 BUST:54%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:11% 9% 60%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 8.9 BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% 8% 61%

WR Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Cooper Kupp 9.9 BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:13% 18% 48%
Quentin Johnston 11.9 BUST:29%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:18% 15% 39%
Garrett Wilson 14.8 BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:22% 15% 48%
Rashid Shaheed 10.1 BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% 14% 53%
Keenan Allen 11.9 BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% 9% 56%

TE Free Agents

PlayerTeamESPNMC ScenariosBoom%Bust%
Zach Ertz 10.2 BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% 28% 24%
Evan Engram 8.4 BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% 27% 24%
Hunter Henry 10.2 BUST:42%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:12% 8% 62%
Oronde Gadsden II 9.4 BUST:42%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:15% 8% 58%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn 10.2 26% 26%
Eddy Pineiro 9.8 17% 45%
Evan McPherson 9.6 9% 60%

D/ST Streamers

PlayerTeamESPNBoom%Bust%
Chiefs D/ST 7.5 53% 18%
Chargers D/ST 9.1 52% 17%
Commanders D/ST 7.6 24% 38%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 16 | Generated: 2025-12-17 05:59

Matchup Summary

65.0%

Win Probability

+18.0
Expected Margin
128.0
My Team (LLM Proj)
110.0
Opponent (Proj)
33.4
Margin Std Dev
124.1
My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -40.0 pts | Median: +2.8 pts | Ceiling: +45.2 pts

Margin Distribution

Opponent Bench Substitution Analysis

When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)

Position Injured Starter Status ESPN Proj Replacement Repl ESPN
WR Rome Odunze QUESTIONABLE 12.2 Jordan Addison 10.6

Opponent Lineup Scenarios

Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.

Scenario Probability Opp Total EV Win Prob Expected Margin
All injured starters play 85.0% 121.5 53.5% +2.5
All injured starters out 15.0% 122.6 52.5% +1.7

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jacoby Brissett QB HIGH 20.0 4.0-27.8 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 13% Jacoby Brissett
Bucky Irving RB MED 15.0 5.0-24.2 ↑15+: 43% | ↓5-: 10% Bucky Irving
Omarion Hampton RB HIGH 14.0 3.7-24.5 ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 16% Omarion Hampton
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR MED 19.0 6.3-30.5 ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rashee Rice WR MED 16.0 6.1-27.8 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 5% Rashee Rice
Jameson Williams WR HIGH 16.0 4.1-25.3 ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% Jameson Williams
Juwan Johnson TE HIGH 9.0 2.8-16.8 ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% Juwan Johnson
Chargers D/ST D/ST HIGH 10.0 0.9-17.7 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 28% Chargers D/ST
Jason Myers K MED 9.0 5.2-17.2 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% Jason Myers

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Jordan Love QB MED 16.0 6.4-27.7 ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% Jordan Love
Tyjae Spears RB HIGH 6.0 2.4-18.4 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 27% Tyjae Spears
Devin Singletary RB HIGH 5.0 0.7-18.3 ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 52% Devin Singletary
Isiah Pacheco RB HIGH 9.0 2.7-15.6 ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 37% Isiah Pacheco
Tetairoa McMillan WR HIGH 10.0 5.3-25.7 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 8% Tetairoa McMillan
Jayden Reed WR HIGH 10.0 4.4-23.1 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 14% Jayden Reed
Rams D/ST D/ST HIGH 6.0 1.1-18.5 ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 34% Rams D/ST

IR

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR HIGH 0.0 3.8-21.9 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 17% Marvin Harrison Jr.

Opponent

Starters

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Baker Mayfield QB MED 16.9 6.3-28.0 ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 6% Baker Mayfield
Jahmyr Gibbs RB HIGH 21.7 10.1-40.0 ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 0% Jahmyr Gibbs
Rico Dowdle RB HIGH 13.4 4.9-28.6 ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 11% Rico Dowdle
DK Metcalf WR HIGH 12.6 5.1-22.8 ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 10% DK Metcalf
Rome Odunze WR HIGH 11.4 3.0-22.2 ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 27% Rome Odunze
Michael Wilson WR HIGH 12.3 3.2-31.1 ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 28% Michael Wilson
Trey McBride TE MED 16.0 8.1-26.4 ↑15+: 49% | ↓5-: 0% Trey McBride
Jaguars D/ST D/ST HIGH 8.9 0.5-17.9 ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% Jaguars D/ST
Harrison Butker K HIGH 8.3 2.7-15.0 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 28% Harrison Butker

Bench

Player Pos Var Proj Range (80%) Boom/Bust Distribution
Kirk Cousins QB HIGH 10.7 1.9-22.5 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 32% Kirk Cousins
Kareem Hunt RB HIGH 10.8 2.8-20.5 ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 24% Kareem Hunt
Michael Carter RB HIGH 8.1 1.5-16.6 ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 37% Michael Carter
Jordan Addison WR HIGH 12.5 5.5-21.9 ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 7% Jordan Addison
Romeo Doubs WR HIGH 10.6 2.4-20.8 ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 23% Romeo Doubs
Colby Parkinson TE HIGH 7.9 1.8-15.1 ↑15+: 10% | ↓5-: 36% Colby Parkinson
Mason Taylor TE HIGH 7.6 1.3-15.6 ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 39% Mason Taylor

Scenario Details

Player Position BOOM MODERATE BUST EV
Bucky Irving RB 19% @ 24.3 64% @ 14.2 17% @ 5.0 14.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR 29% @ 28.7 41% @ 18.7 30% @ 7.6 18.2
Rashee Rice WR 43% @ 24.4 26% @ 16.0 31% @ 7.4 16.9
Omarion Hampton RB 27% @ 23.0 47% @ 12.0 26% @ 4.8 13.1
Jason Myers K 20% @ 16.9 47% @ 11.8 33% @ 6.4 11.0
Juwan Johnson TE 32% @ 14.9 41% @ 9.1 26% @ 3.7 9.6
Jameson Williams WR 24% @ 24.1 47% @ 15.6 30% @ 5.4 14.6
Jacoby Brissett QB 72% @ 21.3 2% @ 14.7 26% @ 5.9 17.2
Chargers D/ST D/ST 32% @ 14.9 44% @ 8.3 24% @ 2.8 9.1

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

PlayerPosESPNLLMModeBoom%Mod%Bust%
Chargers D/STD/ST4.410.0BOOM55.0%29.8%15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR14.20.0OUT42.1%35.4%22.6%
Jordan LoveQB17.416.0MODERATE26.7%52.3%20.9%
Rashee RiceWR17.816.0MODERATE23.7%45.1%31.3%
Jason MyersK8.39.0MODERATE23.3%55.1%21.6%
Juwan JohnsonTE9.19.0MODERATE17.9%25.6%56.6%
Tetairoa McMillanWR13.110.0BUST16.9%61.6%21.5%
Tyjae SpearsRB8.76.0MODERATE16.1%46.9%37.0%
Jacoby BrissettQB18.820.0BOOM13.7%50.2%36.1%
Bucky IrvingRB15.215.0MODERATE12.9%38.9%48.2%
Jayden ReedWR11.210.0BUST12.9%35.6%51.5%
Jameson WilliamsWR15.916.0MODERATE12.3%44.4%43.4%
Isiah PachecoRB9.19.0BUST11.9%28.2%59.9%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR20.919.0MODERATE11.4%65.9%22.7%
Rams D/STD/ST5.26.0MODERATE10.8%30.2%59.0%
Devin SingletaryRB7.55.0BUST9.8%31.8%58.4%
Omarion HamptonRB13.214.0MODERATE8.7%32.5%58.8%

League Standings

Week 16 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank Team Record PF (Total) PA (Total) +/- This Week Streak Playoff %
1 Kitty's Piggy Skins 10-5 1861.3 1676.5 +184.8 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 100.0%
2 4th and pinches 10-5 1771.1 1765.4 +5.7 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 100.0%
3 Valued Customers ← 9-6 1822.8 1558.6 +264.2 0.0 vs 0.0 W5 100.0%
4 Ryan's Rowdy Team 8-7 1759.9 1725.0 +35.0 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 100.0%
5 Wookie of the Year 8-7 1705.9 1731.9 -26.0 0.0 vs 0.0 L1 0.0%
6 Meat Pistols 8-7 1515.0 1664.9 -149.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
7 Torta Pounders Football Club 7-8 1730.5 1674.7 +55.9 0.0 vs 0.0 L2 0.0%
8 Moms rules 7-8 1664.9 1778.5 -113.6 0.0 vs 0.0 W1 0.0%
9 Smooth Roosters 7-8 1664.4 1646.9 +17.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W3 0.0%
10 The Warsaw Pact 6-9 1653.5 1752.0 -98.5 0.0 vs 0.0 W2 0.0%
11 Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 6-9 1584.0 1689.6 -105.6 0.0 vs 0.0 L5 0.0%
12 Auto DraftKings 4-11 1697.9 1767.4 -69.5 0.0 vs 0.0 L4 0.0%

Week 16 Matchups

Away TeamScoreScoreHome Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins 0.0 @ 0.0 Ryan's Rowdy Team
4th and pinches 0.0 @ 0.0 Valued Customers
Wookie of the Year 0.0 @ 0.0 Meat Pistols
Torta Pounders Football Club 0.0 @ 0.0 Moms rules
Smooth Roosters 0.0 @ 0.0 The Warsaw Pact
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits 0.0 @ 0.0 Auto DraftKings

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Weekly Team Points

Cumulative Points

Cumulative Team Points

Week 16 Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates

  1. Patrick Mahomes (KC) - ACL tear, OUT for season. Gardner Minshew starting Week 16 vs TEN. ESPN
  2. Jayden Daniels (WSH) - Out rest of season. Marcus Mariota now the starter. Reddit
  3. Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) - On IR, OUT Week 16 vs ATL
  4. Davante Adams (NYJ) - Hamstring injury, week-to-week Reddit

Reddit Community Sentiment

  • Jacoby Brissett: Very POSITIVE - "matchup-proof 20-point QB" after 9 starts, 20.56 pts vs tough HOU defense. ATL allows top-6 fantasy QB in 2 of last 3 weeks.
  • Vikings Defense: ELITE - No TD pass allowed in 5 games. Hard avoid for WRs/QBs facing them (affects Singletary's support)
  • Rashee Rice: CONCERN - Mahomes out, Minshew takes over. Plus 80% rain/wind at Nashville.

Vegas-Implied Game Scripts

HIGH SCORING (boom environments): - PIT @ DET: 49.5 total, DET -6.5 (Jameson Williams in shootout) - LAC @ DAL: 49.5 total (Omarion Hampton dome game) - GB @ CHI: 46.5 total (Jordan Love cold weather) - ATL @ ARI: 46.5 total, dome (Jacoby Brissett favorable)

LOW SCORING (bust environments): - KC @ TEN: 37.5 total + RAIN/WIND (Rashee Rice, Tyjae Spears depressed) - NYJ @ NO: 40.5 total (Juwan Johnson moderate ceiling)

Weather Concerns

  1. Nissan Stadium (KC @ TEN): 80% rain, 18mph wind - SIGNIFICANT passing game impact
  2. Soldier Field (GB @ CHI): 32°F, 15mph wind - moderate cold game
  3. MetLife (MIN @ NYG): 38°F, 12mph wind - cold but manageable

Final Confidence Tiers

LOCKED-IN STARTERS (high confidence): - Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1) - elite target share vs LAR - Bucky Irving (RB1) - juicy CAR matchup (2nd most pts to RBs) - Jacoby Brissett (QB1) - matchup-proof, ATL favorable - Jameson Williams (FLEX) - DET shootout script

SOLID STARTERS: - Rashee Rice (WR2) - volume play but Minshew + weather concerns - Omarion Hampton (RB2) - high-total dome game - Jordan Love (QB) - cold weather but 46.5 total

ACCEPTABLE: - Tetairoa McMillan (WR3/FLEX) - solid matchup vs TB - Jason Myers (K) - consistent in favorable conditions

AVOID/SIT: - Devin Singletary - MIN elite defense - Marcus Mariota - tough PHI matchup - Bears D/ST - GB offense competent - Rams D/ST - SEA at home is tricky - Tyjae Spears - rain game + backup role

Reddit Insights

Hot Topics

Positive Buzz: Jacoby Brissett, Courtland Sutton, Tyrone Tracy

Negative Buzz: George Pickens, Rashee Rice (weather+QB)

Mixed Buzz: Gardner Minshew

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

['Chargers D/ST is THE pickup - DAL allows 30+ PPG, Chargers have 10+ pts in 2 straight', 'Isiah Pacheco: Mahomes OUT changes everything - Chiefs will run heavy vs TEN', 'Jayden Reed: Christian Watson OUT makes Reed clear WR1 in Saturday divisional game', 'Michael Carter: Conner + Benson on IR, Carter had 80% snaps Week 15, elite Week 17 @ CIN', 'AVOID: Keenan Allen (COLD -41%), Chiefs D/ST (COLD -73%), Emanuel Wilson (volatile)']

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 16)

Best two FA additions and who to drop for each
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: Jason Myers, Bears D/ST | ADD: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Chargers D/ST
Playoffs require MAXIMUM CEILING plays. Fairbairn gives you a top-2 kicker floor with 50+ yard upside every week. Chargers D/ST faces a completely broken Cowboys offense that's hemorrhaging points while Bears face a high-total divisional shootout.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Ka'imi Fairbairn, Tyler Allgeier
These moves prioritize proven weekly consistency over speculative upside. Fairbairn (K4, 11.5 PPG) gives elite insurance behind Myers, while Allgeier's 7.8 PPG floor strengthens RB depth. Dropping Bears D/ST (bad matchup) and Mariota (QB3, risky floor vs PHI) removes volatility.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: Rams D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Patriots D/ST, Chiefs D/ST
Rostering three QBs in the playoffs is a strategic error when only one starts. Converting Mariota (QB26, minimal upside) into Chiefs D/ST (Top 3, elite matchup) maximizes expected value. Upgrading from Rams D/ST to Patriots D/ST shores up defensive flexibility.
🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
The consensus is obsessed with 'keeping depth' and 'weekly flexibility,' but playoff fantasy is about CEILING. Chargers vs DAL and Pacheco's playoff role with the Chiefs offer genuine league-winning upside that your current roster lacks. Championship week demands aggression.
Fact Check
✅ MULTIPLE: "FLOOR: Myers is K1 - CORRECT (87 total pts, league" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "ALL: Bears D/ST 2.9 proj bad matchup vs GB - CORRE" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "SYNTHESIS: Mariota QB26 vs Eagles - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "CONTRARIAN: Chargers 52% XGB boom - CORRECT" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "ALL: Cowboys allow 30+ PPG - CORRECT" CORRECT
❌ CEILING: "Drop Myers for Fairbairn (K2)" FALSE (actual: Myers is K1 (87 pts) vs Fairbairn K4 (78 pts) - REJECTED. Never drop K1.)
❌ CONTRARIAN: "Chargers play Patriots Week 17" FALSE (actual: Chargers play TEXANS Week 17, not Patriots. Schedule error.)
Round 2: Rebuttals
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST | ADD: Chargers D/ST
[Ack] Fact-check correct: Myers K1 (87 pts) > Fairbairn K4 (78 pts). Retracted. [Challenge SYNTHESIS] Patriots D/ST over Chargers is wrong - Chargers have superior matchup vs DAL [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified Mariota as expendable QB3
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
[Ack] Validated: Myers K1 status confirmed [Challenge CEILING] Your original Myers drop would have been catastrophic [Concede] CONTRARIAN's Pacheco argument has merit - playoff ceiling matters
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
[Ack] Concede Chargers > Patriots for Week 16 matchup [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Week 17 Chargers schedule claim was FALSE [Concede] Chargers D/ST is correct Week 16 play regardless of Week 17
🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
[Ack] Corrected: Chargers Week 17 opponent is Texans, not Patriots [Challenge CEILING] At least I didn't try to drop the K1 kicker [Concede] FLOOR's conservative approach on Myers was correct
Consensus: Unanimous
DROP: Bears D/ST, Marcus Mariota | ADD: Chargers D/ST, Isiah Pacheco
4/4 agents agree
Dissent: 4/4 agents aligned after Round 2: Drop Bears D/ST (52% XGB boom vs DAL) and Mariota (QB3 expendable). Myers drop REJECTED by fact-check - he's K1 with 87 total points.
Week 16 starting lineup optimization
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
The current lineup maximizes ceiling with Brissett's 72% MC BOOM rate in dome, JSN/Williams/Rice all in favorable matchups, and Hampton in dome vs DAL. No changes needed - this is an optimized ceiling lineup.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Current starters provide strong floors: Brissett's consistent production, Irving's RB1 volume, and elite WR trio. Bench depth is adequate with Love as QB backup. No changes recommended.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Expected value analysis confirms current lineup is optimal. Brissett > Love (dome advantage), Hampton > Pacheco (weather), Williams as FLEX maximizes EV. All starters should remain.
🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM
DROP: | ADD:
Consider Love over Brissett (higher XGB boom 26.7% vs 13.7%) and Rice over McMillan at FLEX for target share upside. However, given weather concerns, consensus lineup is defensible.
Consensus: Unanimous
KEEP ALL STARTERS - Lineup is optimized
4/4 agents agree
Full lineup optimization for Week 16 playoff matchup after waiver claims (Pacheco, Reed, Chargers added)
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
In a playoff semifinal, we need boom-or-bust ceiling plays over safe floors. Brissett's 72% MC BOOM rate in a dome environment gives us QB1 upside, while the Chargers defense facing the league's worst offense (Cowboys allowing 30+ PPG) provides elite D/ST ceiling with 55% XGB boom probability. Williams in Detroit's high-scoring dome game (49.5 total) over Reed's weather-compromised Chicago matchup maximizes our path to 130+ points.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
This lineup prioritizes proven floors in playoff-critical slots: Brissett's elite floor in Arizona system (20+ pts in every AZ start), dome game for Hampton over weather-compromised Pacheco (68% MC bust in rain/wind), and Chargers D/ST elite matchup over Rams' risky Seattle game. Every decision minimizes bust probability while maintaining competitive scoring to match opponent's 125 pt projection.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
This lineup maximizes expected value at 125.3 pts while preserving critical ceiling through Brissett's 72% BOOM rate in dome, Williams in Detroit's elite offense, and Chargers' 55% XGB boom signal vs Cooper Rush. Hampton over Pacheco adds 5.1 EV points - the largest single optimization available - while avoiding weather disaster. The +8.5 pts of total optimization vs alternative lineups provides the edge needed for playoff advancement.
🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM
DROP: | ADD:
The consensus is fading Love on weather fears that don't match forecast reality (clear/dry), sleeping on Pacheco's volume advantage as lead back, and missing Reed's target spike with Watson out. Playoff week demands upside over 'safe' dome games - Love's 26.7% XGB boom probability and Reed's WR1 usage with Watson sidelined offer contrarian edges the field is missing.
Round 2: Rebuttals
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Correct - Chargers are 1st in points allowed (17.7 PPG), not third-down defense. My core argument stands. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Reed XGB boom 27.3% [Concede] CONTRARIAN correctly notes XGB gives Love higher boom (26.7%) than Brissett (13.7%), but MC's 72% boom for Brissett in dome trumps XGB signal.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Fair point - Brissett's Patriots starts were poor. Revised claim: 20+ pts in every ARIZONA start. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Watson OUT [Concede] Hampton's XGB 58.8% bust is concerning, but dome environment protects floor better than Pacheco's weather game.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] No fact-check issues. All EV calculations verified. [Challenge CONTRARIAN] Weather almost perfect for GB/CHI [Concede] Rams ESPN projection (5.2) exceeds Chargers (4.4), but MC EV and XGB boom favor Chargers.
🔮 CONTRARIAN LOW
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Made significant data errors on Reed (MC bust 43.2% not 28%, XGB boom 12.9% not 27.3%) and Watson status. These errors undermine Reed recommendation. [Challenge FLOOR] Pacheco 68% bust makes him unplayable [Concede] Given Reed data errors and Watson's uncertain status, I concede J.Williams is the safer FLEX play.
Consensus: Majority
Lineup: QB Brissett, RB1 Irving, RB2 Hampton, WR1 JSN, WR2 Rice, TE Johnson, FLEX Williams, K Myers, DST Chargers
0/4 agents agree
Marvin Harrison Jr. IR decision: Hold, drop for WR FA, or swap for different IR stash (Nabers/Skattebo/Wilson)?
Round 1: Opening Arguments
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Zero-cost lottery ticket with league-winning upside. All IR alternatives (Wilson, Nabers, Skattebo) are OUT for season. MHJ 26.8% BOOM (12.7-27.7 pts) could be championship-winning if he returns Week 17.
🔽 FLOOR HIGH
DROP: Marvin Harrison Jr. | ADD:
All IR alternatives are OUT for season (Nabers torn ACL, Skattebo ankle surgery). Since IR swap is impossible, drop MHJ for roster flexibility to grab active FA if needed.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
EV analysis: MHJ has ~25% return probability with 12.1 EV = 3.0 expected pts. This beats 0.0 from dropping. IR slot costs nothing. All alternatives unavailable.
🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
Challenged consensus that swapping IR stashes helps. All alternatives (Nabers, Skattebo, Wilson) are EQUALLY or MORE likely to miss rest of season. If dropping MHJ, get ACTIVE FA, not another IR stash.
Fact Check
✅ MULTIPLE: "Malik Nabers: Torn ACL + meniscus Week 4, OUT for " CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Cam Skattebo: Ankle dislocation + tibia fracture, " CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "Garrett Wilson: On IR since Week 11, effectively O" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ: NOT on IR (just inactive), but likely done fo" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ MC BOOM: 26.8%, MC EV: 12.1 pts" CORRECT
✅ MULTIPLE: "5 active WRs on roster (JSN, Rice, Williams, McMil" CORRECT
❌ CEILING: "Gannon expects MHJ to return" FALSE (actual: Technically true but experts believe he is done)
Round 2: Rebuttals
🔼 CEILING HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Fact-check confirms all IR alternatives OUT for season - validates HOLD position [Challenge FLOOR] roster flexibility [Concede] FLOOR correctly identified IR swap was impossible - all alternatives season-ending
🔽 FLOOR LOW
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Concede IR swap strategy was flawed - all alternatives OUT for season [Challenge CEILING] zero cost [Concede] IR swap idea disproven. No better stash exists.
⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] EV framework validated by fact-check [Challenge FLOOR] flexibility value [Concede] If elite Week 17 streamer appears, revisit decision
🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM
DROP: | ADD:
[Ack] Contrarian angle validated - IR swap was lateral move as predicted [Challenge SYNTHESIS] 25% return prob [Concede] CEILING correct about zero opportunity cost
Consensus: Majority
HOLD Marvin Harrison Jr. on IR
0/4 agents agree

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.2
Our Team MAE
17 players
13.9
Opponent MAE
9 players
0.0
Free Agent MAE
3 players
29
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 10.9
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Opponent RB Jahmyr Gibbs 23.8 - 0.0 -23.8
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 18.8 20.0 0.0 -20.0
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.9 19.0 0.0 -19.0
Opponent TE Trey McBride 16.8 - 0.0 -16.8
Opponent QB Baker Mayfield 16.6 - 0.0 -16.6
Our Team QB Jordan Love 17.4 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.8 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 15.9 16.0 0.0 -16.0
Opponent RB Rico Dowdle 15.2 - 0.0 -15.2
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 15.0 0.0 -15.0
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 13.2 14.0 0.0 -14.0
Opponent WR DK Metcalf 13.5 - 0.0 -13.5
Opponent WR Michael Wilson 13.4 - 0.0 -13.4
Opponent WR Rome Odunze 12.6 - 0.0 -12.6
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.1 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team D/ST Chargers D/ST 4.4 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team WR Jayden Reed 11.2 10.0 0.0 -10.0
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.3 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.1 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Our Team RB Isiah Pacheco 9.1 9.0 0.0 -9.0
Opponent K Harrison Butker 8.0 - 0.0 -8.0
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 8.7 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 5.2 6.0 0.0 -6.0
Opponent D/ST Jaguars D/ST 5.7 - 0.0 -5.7
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 7.5 5.0 0.0 -5.0
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 14.2 0.0 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent RB Isiah Pacheco 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Patriots D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0
Free Agent D/ST Chargers D/ST 0.0 - 0.0 +0.0

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_014 (2025-12-15)

5.7
Our Team MAE
18 players
8.6
Free Agent MAE
3 players
21
Players Tracked
Combined MAE: 6.2
LLM Prediction Scatter ESPN Prediction Scatter

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category Pos Player ESPN LLM Actual Error
Our Team K Jason Myers 8.5 10.0 24.0 +14.0
Free Agent TE Harold Fannin Jr. 0.0 - 12.0 +12.0
Our Team WR Jameson Williams 13.9 17.0 26.4 +9.4
Free Agent D/ST Steelers D/ST 0.0 - 9.0 +9.0
Our Team WR Tetairoa McMillan 13.2 13.0 4.5 -8.5
Our Team D/ST Bears D/ST 6.6 10.0 18.0 +8.0
Our Team RB Bucky Irving 15.2 16.0 8.1 -7.9
Our Team RB Devin Singletary 10.8 10.0 2.4 -7.6
Our Team QB Jacoby Brissett 13.9 13.0 20.6 +7.6
Our Team WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba 20.6 25.0 18.3 -6.7
Our Team WR Luther Burden III 8.1 8.0 14.4 +6.4
Our Team QB Marcus Mariota 18.1 21.0 14.7 -6.3
Our Team D/ST Rams D/ST 4.2 5.0 -1.0 -6.0
Free Agent RB Chuba Hubbard 0.0 - 4.8 +4.8
Our Team TE Juwan Johnson 9.7 11.0 7.0 -4.0
Our Team WR Rashee Rice 17.2 16.0 12.1 -3.9
Our Team TE Hunter Henry 10.3 6.0 2.8 -3.2
Our Team RB Omarion Hampton 11.7 10.0 7.5 -2.5
Our Team RB Tyjae Spears 10.1 7.0 5.6 -1.4
Our Team QB Jordan Love 14.8 14.0 13.9 -0.1
Our Team WR Marvin Harrison Jr. 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

projection_accuracy_overall.png projection_accuracy_by_position.png projection_error_distribution.png projection_accuracy_trend.png league_team_mae_ranking.png league_bias_heatmap.png league_positional_scatter.png

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

xgb_boom_calibration.png xgb_bust_calibration.png xgb_position_calibration.png xgb_weekly_brier_trend.png xgb_feature_importance.png

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

llm_projection_accuracy_overall.png llm_projection_accuracy_by_position.png llm_projection_error_distribution.png llm_projection_accuracy_trend.png

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 16 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.

Jordan Love (QB)
Jordan Love distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 17.4 pts
BUST
28%
MODERATE
50%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 6.5 pts
Median (50th) 16.1 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
27% BOOM
Bucky Irving (RB)
Bucky Irving distribution
LLM 15.0 pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
17%
MODERATE
64%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 5.1 pts
Median (50th) 13.8 pts
90th percentile 24.2 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba distribution
LLM 19.0 pts
ESPN 20.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
29%
10th percentile 6.2 pts
Median (50th) 18.1 pts
90th percentile 30.5 pts
MC (Historical)
29% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan (WR)
Tetairoa McMillan distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 13.1 pts
BUST
50%
MODERATE
34%
BOOM
16%
10th percentile 5.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.4 pts
90th percentile 25.8 pts
MC (Historical)
16% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. distribution
LLM 0.0 pts
ESPN 14.2 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.9 pts
Median (50th) 11.2 pts
90th percentile 21.9 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
42% BOOM
Rashee Rice (WR)
Rashee Rice distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 17.8 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
26%
BOOM
43%
10th percentile 6.1 pts
Median (50th) 17.2 pts
90th percentile 27.9 pts
MC (Historical)
43% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
24% BOOM
Tyjae Spears (RB)
Tyjae Spears distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 8.7 pts
BUST
18%
MODERATE
67%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 2.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.0 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM
Omarion Hampton (RB)
Omarion Hampton distribution
LLM 14.0 pts
ESPN 13.2 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 3.6 pts
Median (50th) 11.7 pts
90th percentile 24.7 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Jason Myers (K)
Jason Myers distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 8.3 pts
BUST
33%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
20%
10th percentile 5.2 pts
Median (50th) 10.8 pts
90th percentile 17.3 pts
MC (Historical)
20% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
23% BOOM
Juwan Johnson (TE)
Juwan Johnson distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 9.1 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
42%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 9.1 pts
90th percentile 16.9 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Jameson Williams (WR)
Jameson Williams distribution
LLM 16.0 pts
ESPN 15.9 pts
BUST
30%
MODERATE
47%
BOOM
24%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 14.6 pts
90th percentile 25.3 pts
MC (Historical)
24% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Rams D/ST (D/ST)
Rams D/ST distribution
LLM 6.0 pts
ESPN 5.2 pts
BUST
40%
MODERATE
38%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 1.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.8 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
11% BOOM
Devin Singletary (RB)
Devin Singletary distribution
LLM 5.0 pts
ESPN 7.5 pts
BUST
58%
MODERATE
22%
BOOM
19%
10th percentile 0.7 pts
Median (50th) 4.7 pts
90th percentile 18.6 pts
MC (Historical)
19% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
10% BOOM
Jacoby Brissett (QB)
Jacoby Brissett distribution
LLM 20.0 pts
ESPN 18.8 pts
BUST
26%
MODERATE
2%
BOOM
72%
10th percentile 4.1 pts
Median (50th) 18.0 pts
90th percentile 27.7 pts
MC (Historical)
72% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Chargers D/ST (D/ST)
Chargers D/ST distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 4.4 pts
BUST
24%
MODERATE
44%
BOOM
32%
10th percentile 0.9 pts
Median (50th) 8.5 pts
90th percentile 17.6 pts
MC (Historical)
32% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
55% BOOM
Isiah Pacheco (RB)
Isiah Pacheco distribution
LLM 9.0 pts
ESPN 9.1 pts
BUST
68%
MODERATE
29%
BOOM
3%
10th percentile 2.7 pts
Median (50th) 6.3 pts
90th percentile 15.4 pts
MC (Historical)
3% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
12% BOOM
Jayden Reed (WR)
Jayden Reed distribution
LLM 10.0 pts
ESPN 11.2 pts
BUST
43%
MODERATE
46%
BOOM
11%
10th percentile 4.4 pts
Median (50th) 10.0 pts
90th percentile 22.7 pts
MC (Historical)
11% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
13% BOOM
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Jahmyr Gibbs distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 23.8 pts
BUST
54%
MODERATE
19%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 10.0 pts
Median (50th) 16.1 pts
90th percentile 40.1 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
7% BOOM
Rico Dowdle (RB)
Rico Dowdle distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 15.2 pts
BUST
53%
MODERATE
30%
BOOM
18%
10th percentile 4.9 pts
Median (50th) 10.4 pts
90th percentile 28.3 pts
MC (Historical)
18% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
14% BOOM
Trey McBride (TE)
Trey McBride distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.8 pts
BUST
43%
MODERATE
35%
BOOM
22%
10th percentile 8.1 pts
Median (50th) 15.0 pts
90th percentile 26.3 pts
MC (Historical)
22% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
17% BOOM
DK Metcalf (WR)
DK Metcalf distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 13.5 pts
BUST
46%
MODERATE
31%
BOOM
23%
10th percentile 5.0 pts
Median (50th) 10.9 pts
90th percentile 22.9 pts
MC (Historical)
23% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
30% BOOM
Baker Mayfield (QB)
Baker Mayfield distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 16.6 pts
BUST
36%
MODERATE
48%
BOOM
15%
10th percentile 6.3 pts
Median (50th) 16.8 pts
90th percentile 27.8 pts
MC (Historical)
15% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
18% BOOM
Rome Odunze (WR)
Rome Odunze distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 12.6 pts
BUST
51%
MODERATE
41%
BOOM
8%
10th percentile 3.0 pts
Median (50th) 9.5 pts
90th percentile 21.7 pts
MC (Historical)
8% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
9% BOOM
Michael Wilson (WR)
Michael Wilson distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 13.4 pts
BUST
59%
MODERATE
24%
BOOM
17%
10th percentile 3.2 pts
Median (50th) 7.9 pts
90th percentile 31.2 pts
MC (Historical)
17% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
8% BOOM
Jaguars D/ST (D/ST)
Jaguars D/ST distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 5.7 pts
BUST
25%
MODERATE
36%
BOOM
38%
10th percentile 0.4 pts
Median (50th) 8.2 pts
90th percentile 17.6 pts
MC (Historical)
38% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
48% BOOM
Harrison Butker (K)
Harrison Butker distribution
LLM - pts
ESPN 8.0 pts
BUST
31%
MODERATE
43%
BOOM
27%
10th percentile 2.8 pts
Median (50th) 7.6 pts
90th percentile 14.9 pts
MC (Historical)
27% BOOM
XGB (This Week)
16% BOOM